Geneva – SAM for Rights and Liberties has issued a human rights situation assessment on the renewed Houthi-Saudi escalation and the anticipated risks to civilians, civilian infrastructure, and Yemen’s broader system of rights and essential services. The organization warned that the rapidly evolving military developments since July 2026 could move the country from the state of “no war, no peace” that has prevailed since the end of the UN-brokered truce in October 2022 into an even more fragile phase, amid a severe humanitarian and economic crisis and limited capacity to absorb further shocks.

The report said the current escalation cycle became particularly evident after the Houthi group announced on 20 July what it described as a “naval blockade” on Saudi Arabia and expanded its threats to shipping linked to Saudi ports, alongside attacks on oil tankers and oil facilities. It noted that the impact of these threats quickly became visible in maritime activity, including changes to the routes of some vessels, the disabling of Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders, and reduced traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This suggests that the risk does not require the physical closure of the maritime corridor to affect the decisions of shipping companies, insurers, and traders.

At the same time, the report documented the resumption and gradual expansion of strikes inside Yemen, beginning with strikes in Hodeidah on 24 July and extending to attacks in Marib, the western coast, and Shabwa during August. It also examined the shelling of the judicial complex in Taiz, the large-scale missile and drone attack on the city and port of Mocha, attacks on residential neighborhoods and displacement camps in Marib, renewed hostilities in Bayhan district in Shabwa, and the disruption of the Dhamar-Al Bayda-Marib road, one of the key routes used by civilians and goods traveling toward Yemen’s eastern governorates.

SAM stressed that the seriousness of these developments lies not only in their direct casualties, but also in their simultaneous and interconnected effects. Disruptions to maritime traffic or increases in insurance and shipping costs can drive up food and fuel prices, while damage to ports or roads can slow the movement of supplies. Fuel shortages, in turn, can affect hospitals, water pumps, transportation, and other essential services. In this way, a series of limited military incidents could develop into a broader human rights and humanitarian crisis extending far beyond the immediate areas of confrontation.

The report noted that this escalation is taking place at a time when more than 22 million people in Yemen require assistance and protection, 18.3 million people face acute food insecurity, and more than 2.2 million children under the age of five suffer from acute malnutrition. Only around 60 percent of health facilities are fully operational, while the economy remains unable to absorb further increases in transportation, food, and energy costs.

Against this backdrop, SAM warned that disruption to maritime routes and ports represents one of the most serious escalation pathways for civilians, given Yemen’s heavy dependence on food imports. The organization stressed that maritime security cannot be separated from the right to food, as delays in shipments or higher transport costs are rapidly transmitted to markets and then to households, particularly the poorest families, which may be forced to reduce the number of daily meals, postpone medical treatment, borrow money, or sell assets in response to rising prices.

The assessment also highlighted the particular risks facing women, children, and displaced people. Millions of women and girls already require assistance and protection, while hundreds of thousands of pregnant women depend on healthcare services that may be disrupted by road closures or fuel shortages. Displacement and the collapse of services also increase the risks of violence, exploitation, and child marriage, while children face heightened risks of malnutrition, school dropout, recruitment, hazardous labor, and psychological trauma.

The report further examined the risks to civic and humanitarian space amid intensified military mobilization and rhetoric accusing individuals or groups of disloyalty. It warned that allegations of espionage or cooperation with an adversary could be used to expand arrests and suppress human rights, media, and humanitarian work. It referred to the continued detention of dozens of UN staff members, as well as cases of detention and enforced disappearance documented by international mechanisms and human rights organizations, noting that the expansion of arrests in the context of weak judicial oversight could lead to increased arbitrary detention, enforced disappearance, and restrictions on humanitarian access.

From a legal perspective, SAM emphasized that commercial vessels, ports, roads, oil facilities, telecommunications infrastructure, and courts remain, as a general rule, civilian objects and do not lose their protection unless they specifically meet the definition of a military objective under international humanitarian law. It also stressed that the possible military use of an object does not exempt any party from its obligations relating to distinction, proportionality, and precautions, nor does it justify expanding attacks to encompass entire economic or service sectors.

According to the risk matrix included in the assessment, disruption to maritime traffic and imports, increasing hunger and malnutrition, and interruptions to health and water services all carry a high likelihood of occurrence and could have critical consequences, given the already fragile humanitarian baseline. The reactivation of internal front lines, road closures, and attacks on infrastructure also increase the risks of displacement, service disruption, and wider civilian deprivation.

SAM concluded that the most likely near-term scenario is the continuation of limited and gradual escalation in which maritime routes, energy, and infrastructure are used as instruments of pressure. However, this does not mean the consequences for civilians would be limited. By contrast, a shift toward repeated attacks on ports, energy infrastructure, and roads, or the reopening of major ground fronts, could push the overall risk level from “high” to “critical” within a short period.

The organization called on all parties to the conflict to protect civilians and civilian objects, refrain from indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks, and ensure that access to food, medicine, fuel, and humanitarian assistance is not disrupted. It also called for independent and transparent investigations into attacks affecting civilian infrastructure, the release of arbitrarily detained persons, and disclosure of the fate and whereabouts of those subjected to enforced disappearance. In addition, SAM urged the international community and the United Nations to link de-escalation efforts to practical guarantees ensuring the continued operation of ports, roads, health facilities, and courts, while safeguarding humanitarian and civic space.

SAM stressed that the gravest danger does not lie in any single strike or incident, but in the accumulation of four interconnected trends: disruption of supplies and rising prices; the expansion of strikes to interconnected civilian infrastructure; widening arrests and repression of civic space; and the weakening of justice institutions at a time when they are increasingly needed. The organization warned that the convergence of these trends could transform limited military escalation into a broader human rights and humanitarian crisis that would be far more difficult to contain.